Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 15.976320 19.390644 23.167803 27.630571 32.732666 38.357088 44.998673
2025-11-02 10.767825 15.102839 20.420506 27.309655 35.877491 46.059395 58.941455
2025-11-09 8.034131 12.678725 18.860984 27.445155 38.787998 52.987022 71.799514
2025-11-16 6.143202 10.800505 17.468069 27.292718 40.942445 58.758214 83.231496
2025-11-23 4.644730 9.091090 15.921706 26.560560 42.028416 62.976070 92.665719
2025-11-30 3.882583 8.333452 15.587537 27.406487 45.218916 70.041240 106.070558
2025-12-07 3.051179 7.249991 14.543230 26.998762 46.472112 74.397479 115.895314
2025-12-14 2.509892 6.555808 14.001923 27.257885 48.649180 80.079072 127.712641
2025-12-21 1.875720 5.501594 12.651457 26.007444 48.347008 82.070155 134.296655
2025-12-28 1.598283 5.131007 12.471869 26.680533 51.070699 88.605567 147.626992
2026-01-04 1.332059 4.708719 12.118730 26.988687 53.184008 94.270303 159.844322
2026-01-11 1.133073 4.393360 11.923324 27.541985 55.705702 100.632528 173.282714
2026-01-18 0.962949 4.123778 11.826033 28.352693 58.863292 108.361396 189.448657
2026-01-25 0.743811 3.628776 11.155423 27.998777 59.998769 112.977394 201.119437
2026-02-01 0.595384 3.287082 10.763652 28.135333 61.979699 119.004951 215.146828
2026-02-08 0.463392 2.932534 10.265011 27.979836 63.390291 124.120911 227.877518
2026-02-15 0.338542 2.524223 9.535738 27.233379 63.624039 127.250041 237.519083
2026-02-22 0.287504 2.402047 9.544719 28.095812 66.939957 135.691673 255.922578
2026-03-01 0.213622 2.112631 9.017708 27.680146 67.743305 139.841716 267.468418
2026-03-08 0.169282 1.941466 8.797790 27.944319 69.882790 146.366773 283.071173
2026-03-15 0.110382 1.608280 7.981833 26.669404 68.828309 147.210415 289.266908
2026-03-22 0.090631 1.524016 7.962094 27.355700 71.816874 155.343454 307.854391
2026-03-29 0.070479 1.408379 7.804576 27.669874 74.038582 162.159220 324.385136